Shonan Bellmare 1-2 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 22 Sep 2024

Shonan Bellmare
1-2 HT 1-2
Cerezo Osaka
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.69
6+ Goals
9%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 31% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.05
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
4.78
X/2
12%
6.5
X/X
13%
4.5
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
11%
4.72
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · X/1 at 4.78 — our 24% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Shonan Bellmare v Cerezo Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 33%
-14% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.53/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.30
-9% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 79%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
19.0 Crosses 17.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.9

Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shonan Bellmare
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.86 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
286 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
30.09.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
02.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JPK
20.05.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-2 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
01.10.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
11.06.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-4 HT 0-3 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK

Shonan Bellmare 1-2 Cerezo Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shonan Bellmare
1-2
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.58 xG 2.50
73% Ball Possession 27%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
542 Passes 168
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka nicked a narrow win over Shonan Bellmare 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Shonan Bellmare at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shonan Bellmare had 73% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 27%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 1.58 to 2.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Shonan Bellmare and 1.67 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka?

Shonan Bellmare 1-2 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shonan Bellmare vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shonan Bellmare win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Shonan Bellmare 46%, draw 26%, Cerezo Osaka 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shonan Bellmare) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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