Cerezo Osaka 2-0 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.06
6+ Goals
8%
19.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 33% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.8
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.39
X/2
14%
7.2
X/X
12%
4.28
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
9%
5.62
2/X
11%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.0pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.30/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.29
-11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
415 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.9 Crosses 18.4
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.24 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
368 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
02.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JPK
20.05.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-2 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
01.10.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
11.06.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-4 HT 0-3 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
04.06.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2-0
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.28 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 11
345 Passes 273
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 25
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka beat Shonan Bellmare 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 54% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 46%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.28 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Cerezo Osaka 2-0 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 43%, draw 29%, Shonan Bellmare 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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