Nagoya Grampus 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.08
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
12%
6.07
X/2
12%
5.21
X/X
16%
4.24
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
14%
3.43
2/X
7%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-1.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 42%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
1.20/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.31
-3% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 77%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
15.2 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.14
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
319 Passes 500
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 HT 2-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
01.07.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-0 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
15.04.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-2 HT 0-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
14.09.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
12.03.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
04.05.2021 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 3-2 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-0
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.13 xG 1.02
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
213 Passes 465
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus beat Kawasaki Frontale 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 36% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 64%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.13 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.33 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Nagoya Grampus 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 34%, draw 30%, Kawasaki Frontale 36%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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