Aston Villa U21 3-1 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
3.59
Over 2.5
69%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.35
No
39%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
13%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
38%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.3pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.5pp
31%
Under 2.5
24%
+7.3pp
69%
Over 2.5
76%
-7.3pp
61%
BTTS Yes
70%
-9.2pp
39%
BTTS No
30%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa U21 EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa U21
3-1
AWAY Derby County U21
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
362 Passes 391
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa U21 got the better of Derby County U21 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aston Villa U21 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Aston Villa U21 had 47% of the ball to Derby County U21's 53%, shots finished 14-9.

What was the final score of Aston Villa U21 vs Derby County U21?

Aston Villa U21 3-1 Derby County U21 in the INGPL2 on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa U21 46%, draw 26%, Derby County U21 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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