Aston Villa U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa U21 v Derby County U21 — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa U21 3-1 Derby County U21 — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa U21 got the better of Derby County U21 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aston Villa U21 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Aston Villa U21 had 47% of the ball to Derby County U21's 53%, shots finished 14-9.
What was the final score of Aston Villa U21 vs Derby County U21?
Aston Villa U21 3-1 Derby County U21 in the INGPL2 on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa U21 vs Derby County U21?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa U21 46%, draw 26%, Derby County U21 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.