Barrow 2-1 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Aug 2025

Barrow
2-1 HT 1-0
Notts County
📅16/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Barrow vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
17.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 33% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.02
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
15%
5.66
X/2
14%
5.33
X/X
11%
4.23
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
14%
3.67
2/X
9%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barrow v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.29/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.48
-11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
273 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.5 Crosses 17.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Barrow vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Notts County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.23
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
176 Passes 626
70% Pass Accuracy 90%
26 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.03.2025 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 0-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
22.10.2024 Barrow Barrow 1-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
27.01.2024 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 1-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
07.10.2023 Barrow Barrow 1-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
07.03.2020 Barrow Barrow 0-2 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
16.11.2019 Notts County Notts County 0-3 HT 0-2 Barrow Barrow İBSL

Barrow 2-1 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
2-1
AWAY Notts County
1.64 xG 0.70
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
222 Passes 488
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow squeezed past Notts County 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Barrow found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barrow had 35% of the ball to Notts County's 65%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.64 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barrow had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Barrow and 1.00 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Notts County?

Barrow 2-1 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Barrow 38%, draw 26%, Notts County 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barrow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barrow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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