Barrow 1-1 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 22 Oct 2024

Barrow
1-1 HT 1-0
Notts County
📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Barrow vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.26
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 26% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.27
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
18%
4.93
X/2
13%
5.93
X/X
11%
4.74
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
14%
4.21
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barrow v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barrow EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.15/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.68
-10% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
278 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 71%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
20.3 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

Barrow vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barrow
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Notts County
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.91 xG 0.99
33% Ball Possession 67%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
184 Passes 664
72% Pass Accuracy 91%
24 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 1-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
07.10.2023 Barrow Barrow 1-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
07.03.2020 Barrow Barrow 0-2 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
16.11.2019 Notts County Notts County 0-3 HT 0-2 Barrow Barrow İBSL

Barrow 1-1 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barrow
1-1
AWAY Notts County
0.85 xG 1.70
28% Ball Possession 72%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
176 Passes 573
70% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Barrow vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow and Notts County couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Barrow at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Barrow had 28% of the ball to Notts County's 72%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.85 to 1.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Barrow and 1.00 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Barrow vs Notts County?

Barrow 1-1 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barrow vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barrow win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Barrow 41%, draw 26%, Notts County 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Barrow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barrow) ✓ Under 2.5
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