Salford City 2-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.93
6+ Goals
10%
17.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.4
1/2
9%
32.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.96
X/2
16%
5.81
X/X
11%
4.43
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
11%
4.24
2/X
6%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salford City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.27/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.36
+0% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
235 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 69%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
21.3 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salford City
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 0.96
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 Passes 308
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.02.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
21.10.2023 Salford City Salford City 2-2 HT 1-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
18.02.2023 Salford City Salford City 1-2 HT 1-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
06.08.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
26.02.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
21.08.2021 Salford City Salford City 0-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salford City
2-1
AWAY Swindon Town
1.34 xG 1.28
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
247 Passes 185
70% Pass Accuracy 63%
27 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Salford City vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salford City edged past Swindon Town 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Salford City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Salford City had 56% of the ball to Swindon Town's 44%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.34 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Salford City and 1.17 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Salford City vs Swindon Town?

Salford City 2-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salford City vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salford City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Salford City 38%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salford City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Salford City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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