AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.28
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 25% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.6
X/1
16%
3.46
X/2
8%
12.35
X/X
9%
5.66
2/1
10%
24.0
2/2
7%
10.45
2/X
11%
19.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.1pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.7pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 18%
-21% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.63/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.64
+0% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
360 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 64%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
24.6 Crosses 15.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Morecambe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.40 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
269 Passes 224
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
33 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
28.10.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 4-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
15.01.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
11.09.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-4 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
12.03.2016 Morecambe Morecambe 2-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
17.10.2015 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-5 HT 1-3 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
3-0
AWAY Morecambe
3.13 xG 0.71
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
348 Passes 172
76% Pass Accuracy 61%
29 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon swept aside Morecambe 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AFC Wimbledon as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 62% of the ball to Morecambe's 38%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 3.13 to 0.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morecambe led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 2.50 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Morecambe?

AFC Wimbledon 3-0 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 55%, draw 25%, Morecambe 21%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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