AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.27
6+ Goals
15%
11.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.28
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.65
X/1
16%
4.0
X/2
9%
8.42
X/X
12%
5.3
2/1
7%
22.05
2/2
12%
6.33
2/X
7%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.2pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 26%
-10% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +20%
1.71/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.58
+45% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
282 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 73%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.7 Crosses 15.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Morecambe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.50 xG 1.27
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
286 Passes 218
72% Pass Accuracy 65%
35 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 4-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
15.01.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
11.09.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-4 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
12.03.2016 Morecambe Morecambe 2-1 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
17.10.2015 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-5 HT 1-3 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
31.01.2015 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 1-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-1
AWAY Morecambe
1.09 xG 0.66
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
220 Passes 241
66% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon and Morecambe shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Wimbledon at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 51% of the ball to Morecambe's 49%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.09 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morecambe led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 2.50 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Morecambe?

AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 48%, draw 24%, Morecambe 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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