Newport County 1-0 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.99
6+ Goals
9%
18.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.06
1/2
11%
29.5
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
14%
5.62
X/2
11%
5.09
X/X
18%
4.2
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
15%
3.53
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
37%
Away Win
37%
-0.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.36/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.09
+5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
255 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 74%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
22.7 Crosses 21.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Gillingham
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.55 xG 1.87
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
165 Passes 225
54% Pass Accuracy 60%
21 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
29.04.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-2 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.11.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
13.08.2019 Gillingham Gillingham 2-2 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-0
AWAY Gillingham
0.56 xG 1.52
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
267 Passes 270
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County squeezed past Gillingham 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 30% / 37% — and on the day Newport County made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Newport County had 50% of the ball to Gillingham's 50%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.56 to 1.52 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gillingham.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Newport County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Newport County and 0.75 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Gillingham?

Newport County 1-0 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Newport County 33%, draw 30%, Gillingham 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gillingham) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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