Swindon Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

Swindon Town
1-2 HT 0-2
Milton Keynes Dons
📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Swindon Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.92
1/2
6%
23.75
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
13%
6.25
X/2
14%
5.32
X/X
11%
5.21
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
16%
3.13
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.25
Value flag · 2/X at 12.25 — our 12% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.9pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Milton Keynes Dons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +5%
1.33/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.13
+25% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
260 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.1 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Swindon Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.50 xG 2.07
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
341 Passes 472
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
24.04.2021 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 5-0 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
29.12.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-4 HT 1-3 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
09.02.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-3 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
01.09.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
08.04.2017 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1

Swindon Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
1-2
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.12 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
333 Passes 366
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons nicked a narrow win over Swindon Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Milton Keynes Dons found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 50% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 50%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.12 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Swindon Town and 2.67 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Swindon Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 35%, draw 29%, Milton Keynes Dons 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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