Colchester 1-1 Accrington Stanley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
40%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.15
6+ Goals
12%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 25% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.88
1/2
9%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
13%
4.83
X/2
7%
6.68
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
24%
4.55
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
45%
-9.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
40%
Away Win
30%
+10.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.9pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.60/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.34
-1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
299 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 68%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.2 Crosses 21.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Accrington Stanley
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 2.36
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
182 Passes 400
66% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 54
10 Crosses 46
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 0-1 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
10.11.2018 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-0 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester FAK
07.04.2018 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
05.08.2017 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-1 HT 2-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
18.02.2017 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 2-1 HT 2-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
24.09.2016 Colchester Colchester 1-2 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
1-1
AWAY Accrington Stanley
0.73 xG 0.36
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
262 Passes 198
70% Pass Accuracy 60%
26 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Accrington Stanley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester and Accrington Stanley couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Colchester had 53% of the ball to Accrington Stanley's 47%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 0.73 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Accrington Stanley led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Colchester and 1.50 for Accrington Stanley.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Accrington Stanley?

Colchester 1-1 Accrington Stanley in the England - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Accrington Stanley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Accrington Stanley win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Colchester 35%, draw 25%, Accrington Stanley 40%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Accrington Stanley)
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