Grimsby Town 1-5 Doncaster Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.74
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
12%
4.62
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.97
X/X
11%
4.93
2/1
7%
23.75
2/2
10%
4.89
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · X/2 at 6.97 — our 18% vs market 10.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+6.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 32%
-15% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.38/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.24
-21% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
316 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 72%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.4 Crosses 15.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.93 xG 1.58
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
254 Passes 268
67% Pass Accuracy 65%
17 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
10.04.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-2 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
12.11.2022 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-3 HT 0-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
13.08.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İNLK
20.07.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers HAZ
09.10.2018 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-0 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
1-5
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
2.03 xG 0.70
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
232 Passes 183
66% Pass Accuracy 59%
25 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Doncaster Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers ran out comfortable winners over Grimsby Town 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Doncaster Rovers made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 54% of the ball to Doncaster Rovers's 46%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.03 to 0.70 — the balance of chances actually favoured Grimsby Town.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.17 for Doncaster Rovers.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Grimsby Town 1-5 Doncaster Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Doncaster Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 39%, draw 26%, Doncaster Rovers 35%. The final score 1-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✗ BTTS No
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