Notts County 1-2 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Mar 2025

Notts County
1-2 HT 0-1
Barrow
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Notts County vs Barrow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.61
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.3
X/1
17%
4.01
X/2
13%
9.41
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1
12%
24.3
2/2
8%
7.94
2/X
8%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Barrow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -22%
1.77/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.17
+36% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
358 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 68%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
21.1 Crosses 18.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Notts County vs Barrow Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Barrow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.23 xG 1.55
68% Ball Possession 32%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
634 Passes 181
90% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.10.2024 Barrow Barrow 1-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
27.01.2024 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 1-1 Barrow Barrow İN2
07.10.2023 Barrow Barrow 1-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
07.03.2020 Barrow Barrow 0-2 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
16.11.2019 Notts County Notts County 0-3 HT 0-2 Barrow Barrow İBSL

Notts County 1-2 Barrow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-2
AWAY Barrow
1.21 xG 0.94
74% Ball Possession 26%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
604 Passes 160
89% Pass Accuracy 69%
35 Box Touches 43
34 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barrow squeezed past Notts County 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Notts County at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Notts County had 74% of the ball to Barrow's 26%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.21 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Notts County and 1.20 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Barrow?

Notts County 1-2 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Notts County 50%, draw 23%, Barrow 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
4 Mar 2025
22:45 Accrington Stanley vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →
22:45 Carlisle United vs Walsall Analysis →
22:45 Port Vale vs Harrogate Town Analysis →
22:45 Colchester vs Chesterfield Analysis →
22:45 Bromley vs Doncaster Rovers Analysis →
22:45 Grimsby Town vs Tranmere Rovers Analysis →