Grimsby Town 2-1 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.42
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 24% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.77
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.75
X/1
21%
3.82
X/2
8%
12.75
X/X
8%
5.88
2/1
7%
22.35
2/2
8%
10.9
2/X
7%
19.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
64%
-4.6pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
1.66/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.59
-22% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 68%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
19.6 Crosses 13.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Newport County
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.44 xG 0.98
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
228 Passes 208
65% Pass Accuracy 62%
26 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.03.2025 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
16.11.2024 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
06.04.2024 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
16.12.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
07.03.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
03.09.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-2 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
2-1
AWAY Newport County
2.77 xG 1.30
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
282 Passes 132
75% Pass Accuracy 61%
45 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town nicked a narrow win over Newport County 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Grimsby Town as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 64% of the ball to Newport County's 36%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 2.77 to 1.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Grimsby Town's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Grimsby Town and 0.33 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Newport County?

Grimsby Town 2-1 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 59%, draw 21%, Newport County 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grimsby Town) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✗ Under 2.5
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