Grimsby Town 1-0 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 6 Apr 2024

Grimsby Town
1-0 HT 1-0
Newport County
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Grimsby Town vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 29% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.31
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
15%
4.03
X/2 EV+ ✗
15%
8.79
X/X
13%
4.99
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
12%
6.79
2/X
5%
15.2
Value flag · X/2 at 8.79 — our 15% vs market 7.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
32%
Away Win
22%
+10.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Grimsby Town v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.17/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.38
-31% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 174 · 58%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.3 Crosses 14.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Grimsby Town vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Newport County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 1.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
294 Passes 193
69% Pass Accuracy 59%
20 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
07.03.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
03.09.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-2 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
06.02.2021 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
08.12.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
25.02.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 4-2 HT 2-1 Newport County Newport County İN2

Grimsby Town 1-0 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
1-0
AWAY Newport County
1.38 xG 0.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
119 Passes 142
55% Pass Accuracy 58%
34 Box Touches 5
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town squeezed past Newport County 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Grimsby Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 47% of the ball to Newport County's 53%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 1.38 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.17 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Newport County?

Grimsby Town 1-0 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 43%, draw 25%, Newport County 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grimsby Town), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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