Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
17%
4.44
X/2
10%
8.59
X/X
11%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.35
2/2
10%
6.51
2/X
7%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.35 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Crewe Alexandra win — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.23/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.57
-7% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
394 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 69%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
22.9 Crosses 14.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crewe Alexandra
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.56 xG 1.01
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
260 Passes 324
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
10.02.2024 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
21.10.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-4 HT 2-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
11.02.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-2 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
17.09.2022 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
11.02.2020 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crewe Alexandra
1-0
AWAY Crawley Town
1.35 xG 0.85
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
161 Passes 221
62% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crewe Alexandra vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crewe Alexandra edged past Crawley Town 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Crewe Alexandra as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Crewe Alexandra had 46% of the ball to Crawley Town's 54%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.35 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crewe Alexandra had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Crewe Alexandra and 1.17 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Crewe Alexandra vs Crawley Town?

Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crewe Alexandra vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Crewe Alexandra 50%, draw 23%, Crawley Town 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
16 Aug 2025
14:30 Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers Analysis →
14:30 Oldham Athletic vs Swindon Town Analysis →
17:00 Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham Town Analysis →
17:00 Barrow vs Notts County Analysis →
17:00 Bromley vs Fleetwood Town Analysis →
17:00 Grimsby Town vs Newport County Analysis →