Derry City 1-1 Drogheda United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - FAI Cup, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
18%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.48
Over 2.5
46%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.33
No
49%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
5.21
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.34
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.35
X/1
23%
3.82
X/2
6%
9.12
X/X
15%
3.86
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
7%
8.57
2/X
9%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
18%
Away Win
19%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
64%
-10.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
36%
+10.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
39%
+11.7pp
49%
BTTS No
61%
-11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Drogheda United EU Bookmakers 22%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.81/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.05/2.15
+47% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -96% / -15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
375 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Drogheda United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 1.02
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
443 Passes 124
80% Pass Accuracy 55%
15 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.06.2025 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 2-0 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
16.05.2025 Drogheda United Drogheda United 1-1 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
11.04.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-3 HT 0-0 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
10.11.2024 Drogheda United Drogheda United 2-0 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRK
27.09.2024 Drogheda United Drogheda United 2-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
28.06.2024 Derry City Derry City 5-1 HT 2-1 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
1-1
AWAY Drogheda United
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Drogheda United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City and Drogheda United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Derry City at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Derry City had 65% of the ball to Drogheda United's 35%, shots finished 21-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Drogheda United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Derry City and 1.50 for Drogheda United.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Drogheda United?

Derry City 1-1 Drogheda United in the Ireland - FAI Cup on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Drogheda United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Derry City 53%, draw 29%, Drogheda United 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derry City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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