Derry City vs Drogheda United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derry City v Drogheda United — Team-Based Signals
Derry City vs Drogheda United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-1
HT 2-1
Drogheda United
İRL
0-0
HT 0-0
Derry City
İRL
Derry City 1-3 Drogheda United — Actual Match Statistics
Drogheda United got the better of Derry City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Derry City at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Derry City had 73% of the ball to Drogheda United's 27%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.59 to 0.75.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Derry City and 1.33 for Drogheda United.
What was the final score of Derry City vs Drogheda United?
Derry City 1-3 Drogheda United in the Ireland - Premier League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derry City vs Drogheda United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Derry City 49%, draw 27%, Drogheda United 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.