Drogheda United vs Derry City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Drogheda United v Derry City — Team-Based Signals
Drogheda United vs Derry City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-1
HT 2-1
Drogheda United
İRL
0-0
HT 0-0
Derry City
İRL
3-0
HT 1-0
Drogheda United
İRL
0-1
HT 0-1
Derry City
İRL
Drogheda United 2-1 Derry City — Actual Match Statistics
Drogheda United nicked a narrow win over Derry City 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Derry City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Drogheda United had 31% of the ball to Derry City's 69%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.85 to 0.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Drogheda United's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Drogheda United and 2.17 for Derry City.
What was the final score of Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Drogheda United 2-1 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Drogheda United 28%, draw 31%, Derry City 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.