Mushuc Runa 1-0 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
23%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
47%
Away Win
44%
+3.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.7pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +0%
0.93/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.39
-22% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
255 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 78%
13.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
18.0 Crosses 18.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aucas
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.96 xG 1.87
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
219 Passes 286
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2025 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
15.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
30.03.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-2 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
29.10.2023 Aucas Aucas 4-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
20.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
09.10.2022 Aucas Aucas 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
1-0
AWAY Aucas
0.56 xG 1.16
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
219 Passes 342
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
8 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa edged past Aucas 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Aucas at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 40% of the ball to Aucas's 60%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.56 to 1.16 — on chances, Aucas could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.50 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Aucas?

Mushuc Runa 1-0 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 28%, draw 24%, Aucas 47%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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