Aucas 2-0 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.42/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.47
+24% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 74%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
19.9 Crosses 19.5
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.65 xG 0.81
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
274 Passes 228
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
30.03.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-2 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
29.10.2023 Aucas Aucas 4-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
20.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
09.10.2022 Aucas Aucas 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
14.05.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
2-0
AWAY Mushuc Runa
3.14 xG 1.43
55% Ball Possession 45%
24 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
207 Passes 142
69% Pass Accuracy 60%
33 Box Touches 31
20 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas saw off Mushuc Runa 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aucas as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aucas had 55% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 45%, shots finished 24-18, expected goals 3.14 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aucas and 0.50 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Mushuc Runa?

Aucas 2-0 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Aucas 46%, draw 27%, Mushuc Runa 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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