Groningen 2-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.01
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.57
6+ Goals
13%
14.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.91
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
12.75
X/1
16%
4.82
X/2
11%
6.95
X/X
9%
4.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
5.13
2/X
10%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
45%
+6.2pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.1pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
1.28/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.22
-21% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
20.8 Crosses 17.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Heerenveen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.62 xG 1.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
287 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.01.2025 Groningen Groningen 1-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
22.09.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
19.03.2023 Groningen Groningen 0-2 HT 0-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
22.01.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
10.04.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-1 HT 1-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
12.09.2021 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
2-1
AWAY Heerenveen
0.80 xG 2.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
327 Passes 251
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Groningen vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen squeezed past Heerenveen 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Groningen as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Groningen had 54% of the ball to Heerenveen's 46%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.80 to 2.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Heerenveen.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heerenveen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Groningen and 1.83 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Groningen vs Heerenveen?

Groningen 2-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Groningen 51%, draw 23%, Heerenveen 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Groningen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Groningen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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