Bromley 1-1 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 27% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
14%
4.43
X/2
13%
7.61
X/X
13%
4.85
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
14%
5.66
2/X
5%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bromley EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 29%
-61% / -61% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.92/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.17
-34% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
258 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 65%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.6 Crosses 16.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bromley
1-1
AWAY Carlisle United
1.21 xG 1.56
30% Ball Possession 70%
9 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
122 Passes 462
62% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 39
18 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Bromley vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bromley and Carlisle United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bromley at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bromley had 30% of the ball to Carlisle United's 70%, shots finished 9-23, expected goals 1.21 to 1.56.

What was the final score of Bromley vs Carlisle United?

Bromley 1-1 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bromley vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bromley win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bromley 42%, draw 25%, Carlisle United 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bromley) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bromley) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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