Harrogate Town 2-1 Chesterfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
47%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.41
1/2
9%
22.55
1/X
6%
15.9
X/1
8%
9.8
X/2
9%
4.0
X/X
15%
5.58
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.15
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.1pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-8.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 60%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.14/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.65
+28% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +125% / +1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 77%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
17.0 Crosses 14.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Chesterfield
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Corners 7
03.03.2020 Chesterfield Chesterfield 3-4 HT 2-2 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İBSL
23.11.2019 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-1 HT 1-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
23.02.2019 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İBSL
03.11.2018 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
2-1
AWAY Chesterfield
0.80 xG 0.56
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
152 Passes 395
64% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Chesterfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town edged past Chesterfield 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Chesterfield at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 33% of the ball to Chesterfield's 67%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.80 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Harrogate Town and 1.25 for Chesterfield.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Chesterfield?

Harrogate Town 2-1 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Chesterfield?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 25%, draw 28%, Chesterfield 47%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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