Aveley 2-1 Hemel Hempstead Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aveley
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2024 Aveley Aveley 0-1 HT 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
29.03.2024 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 3-4 HT 2-1 Aveley Aveley İCON
06.11.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-1 HT 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aveley
2-1
AWAY Hemel Hempstead Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aveley vs Hemel Hempstead Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley nicked a narrow win over Hemel Hempstead Town 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Aveley found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aveley had 52% of the ball to Hemel Hempstead Town's 48%, shots finished 16-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Aveley had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aveley and 1.67 for Hemel Hempstead Town.

What was the final score of Aveley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Aveley 2-1 Hemel Hempstead Town in the England - FA Cup on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hemel Hempstead Town win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Aveley 35%, draw 29%, Hemel Hempstead Town 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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