Astoria Walldorf 2-4 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Astoria Walldorf EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.44/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.72
-2% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Astoria Walldorf
1W-1D-2L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.03.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf ALMBÖL
16.09.2023 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf 1-2 HT 1-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
18.03.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf ALMBÖL
09.09.2022 Astoria Walldorf Astoria Walldorf 3-1 HT 2-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Astoria Walldorf vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg beat Astoria Walldorf 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day SGV Freiberg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Astoria Walldorf and 1.50 for SGV Freiberg.

What was the final score of Astoria Walldorf vs SGV Freiberg?

Astoria Walldorf 2-4 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Astoria Walldorf vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Astoria Walldorf 37%, draw 25%, SGV Freiberg 38%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SGV Freiberg), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ BTTS Yes
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