Ferroviaria 1-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 Nov 2025

📅16/11/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
13%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+4.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ferroviaria EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 57%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+72% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
272 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 82%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.3 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ferroviaria
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.71 xG 2.03
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 27
2 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 11
277 Passes 412
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 39
8 Crosses 27
5 Yellow Cards 0
23.07.2025 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-0 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ferroviaria
1-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 xG 1.22
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 9
280 Passes 336
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ferroviaria vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense edged past Ferroviaria 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ferroviaria had 46% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 54%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 1.33 to 1.22.

What was the final score of Ferroviaria vs Atletico Paranaense?

Ferroviaria 1-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ferroviaria vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ferroviaria 26%, draw 24%, Atletico Paranaense 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ BTTS Yes
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