Azerbaycan 1-3 Fransa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 16 Nov 2025

Azerbaycan
1-3 HT 1-3
Fransa
📅16/11/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Azerbaycan vs Fransa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
10%
16.01
Draw
15%
7.13
Away
75%
1.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.61
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.77
2-3 Goals
40%
2.06
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
12%
5.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
35.0
1/2
10%
27.0
1/X
5%
35.0
X/1
3%
35.0
X/2 EV+ ✗
31%
3.86
X/X
4%
11.0
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
34%
1.25
2/X
6%
32.5
Value flag · X/2 at 3.86 — our 31% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
10%
Home Win
4%
+5.9pp
15%
Draw
11%
+3.8pp
76%
Away Win
85%
-9.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.5pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Azerbaycan v Fransa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 6%
Head to Head
AWAY Fransa EU Bookmakers 90%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.72/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.07
+4% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -52%
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
227 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 524 · 86%
12.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
11.2 Crosses 25.4
3.3 Yellow Cards 1.3

Azerbaycan vs Fransa Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Azerbaycan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Fransa
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.08 xG 2.40
23% Ball Possession 77%
1 Total Shots 33
0 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 10
148 Passes 649
67% Pass Accuracy 91%
1 Box Touches 68
3 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.10.2025 Fransa Fransa 3-0 HT 1-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan DKE

Azerbaycan 1-3 Fransa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Azerbaycan
1-3
AWAY Fransa
0.12 xG 2.70
26% Ball Possession 74%
2 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
148 Passes 549
67% Pass Accuracy 90%
4 Box Touches 45
3 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Azerbaycan vs Fransa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fransa beat Azerbaycan 3-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fransa as the likeliest winner at 76%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Azerbaycan had 26% of the ball to Fransa's 74%, shots finished 2-17, expected goals 0.12 to 2.70.

What was the final score of Azerbaycan vs Fransa?

Azerbaycan 1-3 Fransa in the World Cup Qualifiers on 16/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Azerbaycan vs Fransa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fransa win the most likely single outcome at about 76%, with the full match-result split Azerbaycan 10%, draw 15%, Fransa 76%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fransa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fransa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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