Portekiz 9-1 Ermenistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 16 Nov 2025

Portekiz
9-1 HT 5-1
Ermenistan
📅16/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Portekiz vs Ermenistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
82%
1.11
Draw
10%
8.78
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
26%
1.0
Over 2.5
74%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.27
No
50%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
12%
12.0
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
39%
2.83
4-5 Goals
29%
2.28
6+ Goals
20%
2.85
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 2.83 — our 39% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
59%
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
2%
35.0
X/1
18%
4.43
X/2
3%
35.0
X/X
4%
23.55
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
2%
35.0
2/X
4%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
82%
Home Win
85%
-2.8pp
10%
Draw
8%
+1.6pp
8%
Away Win
6%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
40%
+10.2pp
50%
BTTS No
60%
-10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portekiz v Ermenistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portekiz EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Ermenistan EU Bookmakers 9%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.97/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.30/2.18
-27% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -84% / +30%
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
470 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 180 · 70%
37.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.3
30.6 Crosses 6.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0

Portekiz vs Ermenistan Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portekiz
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Ermenistan
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
6.34 xG 0.22
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
486 Passes 277
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
54 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.09.2025 Ermenistan Ermenistan 0-5 HT 0-3 Portekiz Portekiz DKE
13.06.2015 Ermenistan Ermenistan 2-3 HT 1-1 Portekiz Portekiz AVŞE
14.11.2014 Portekiz Portekiz 1-0 HT 0-0 Ermenistan Ermenistan AVŞE
17.11.2007 Portekiz Portekiz 1-0 HT 1-0 Ermenistan Ermenistan AVR
22.08.2007 Ermenistan Ermenistan 1-1 HT 1-1 Portekiz Portekiz AVR

Portekiz 9-1 Ermenistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portekiz
9-1
AWAY Ermenistan
5.69 xG 0.79
76% Ball Possession 24%
34 Total Shots 4
15 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
598 Passes 160
91% Pass Accuracy 75%
52 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portekiz vs Ermenistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portekiz swept aside Ermenistan 9-1. Half-time: 5-1. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Portekiz as the likeliest winner at 82%, and the 9-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (74%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Portekiz had 76% of the ball to Ermenistan's 24%, shots finished 34-4, expected goals 5.69 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Portekiz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Portekiz and 0.60 for Ermenistan.

What was the final score of Portekiz vs Ermenistan?

Portekiz 9-1 Ermenistan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 16/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portekiz vs Ermenistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portekiz win the most likely single outcome at about 82%, with the full match-result split Portekiz 82%, draw 10%, Ermenistan 8%. The final score 9-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portekiz), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portekiz) ✓ Over 2.5
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