Alfreton Town 1-1 Southport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 16 Dec 2025

📅16/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.77
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.91
6+ Goals
6%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 36% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Southport EU Bookmakers 38%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.28/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.44
-4% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Southport
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.02.2025 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Southport Southport İCON
10.08.2024 Southport Southport 3-1 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
27.01.2024 Southport Southport 2-3 HT 2-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
12.08.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-1 HT 2-1 Southport Southport İCON
21.03.2023 Southport Southport 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
20.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 4-0 HT 3-0 Southport Southport İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
1-1
AWAY Southport
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Southport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town and Southport shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 50% of the ball to Southport's 50%, shots finished 11-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Alfreton Town and 1.33 for Southport.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Southport?

Alfreton Town 1-1 Southport in the England - Conference on 16/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Southport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 38%, draw 29%, Southport 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alfreton Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
16 Dec 2025
22:45 Scarborough Athletic vs Radcliffe Borough Analysis →
22:45 Bedford Town vs Macclesfield Analysis →
22:45 South Shields vs Peterborough Sports Analysis →
22:45 Dorking Wanderers vs Weston-super-Mare Analysis →
22:45 Dagenham & Redbridge vs Slough Town Analysis →