Southport 2-3 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
18.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / +0%
1.00/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.53
-24% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-1 HT 2-1 Southport Southport İCON
21.03.2023 Southport Southport 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
20.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 4-0 HT 3-0 Southport Southport İCON
26.03.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-2 HT 0-2 Southport Southport İCON
23.11.2021 Southport Southport 2-0 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
05.12.2020 Southport Southport 1-1 HT 0-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
2-3
AWAY Alfreton Town
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Southport vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town squeezed past Southport 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Alfreton Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Southport had 53% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 47%, shots finished 12-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Southport and 1.67 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Southport vs Alfreton Town?

Southport 2-3 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Southport 34%, draw 26%, Alfreton Town 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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