Southport 3-1 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+2.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
0.99/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.53
-26% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
285 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Southport Southport 2-3 HT 2-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
12.08.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-1 HT 2-1 Southport Southport İCON
21.03.2023 Southport Southport 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
20.08.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 4-0 HT 3-0 Southport Southport İCON
26.03.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-2 HT 0-2 Southport Southport İCON
23.11.2021 Southport Southport 2-0 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
3-1
AWAY Alfreton Town
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Southport vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport got the better of Alfreton Town 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Alfreton Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Southport had 51% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 49%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Southport and 2.00 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Southport vs Alfreton Town?

Southport 3-1 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Southport 32%, draw 27%, Alfreton Town 42%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Alfreton Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✓ BTTS Yes
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