Heracles 4-1 Hoogeveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 16 Dec 2025

📅16/12/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 4-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.11
Draw
12%
8.11
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
30%
3.68
Over 2.5
70%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
3.14
No
40%
1.31
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
9.73
2-3 Goals
31%
2.54
4-5 Goals
35%
2.26
6+ Goals
17%
3.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
53%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
4%
X/X
5%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
85%
-11.5pp
12%
Draw
9%
+2.5pp
15%
Away Win
6%
+9.0pp
30%
Under 2.5
24%
+6.0pp
70%
Over 2.5
76%
-6.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
28%
+32.6pp
40%
BTTS No
72%
-32.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoogeveen EU Bookmakers 9%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +90% / +90%
2.92/0.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-6% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% /
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
501 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
4-1
AWAY Hoogeveen
3.62 xG 0.24
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
444 Passes 207
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
30 Box Touches 5
32 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Hoogeveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles cruised past Hoogeveen 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Heracles as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Heracles had 65% of the ball to Hoogeveen's 35%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 3.62 to 0.24.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Hoogeveen?

Heracles 4-1 Hoogeveen in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 16/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Hoogeveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split Heracles 73%, draw 12%, Hoogeveen 15%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heracles), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heracles) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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