Newport City 5-1 Afan Lido — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
38%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.6pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport City EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Afan Lido EU Bookmakers 21%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +5%
1.34/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.94
-43% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport City
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Afan Lido
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
09.08.2024 Afan Lido Afan Lido 1-1 HT 1-1 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
POST-MATCH Newport City vs Afan Lido
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport City cruised past Afan Lido 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newport City as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

What was the final score of Newport City vs Afan Lido?

Newport City 5-1 Afan Lido in the Wales - FAW Championship on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport City vs Afan Lido?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport City win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Newport City 56%, draw 21%, Afan Lido 24%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newport City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newport City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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