Dungannon Swifts 2-3 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.32
6+ Goals
8%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 28% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.75
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.25
X/1
13%
4.68
X/2
16%
7.22
X/X
10%
4.85
2/1
9%
24.3
2/2
17%
5.34
2/X
5%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
47%
-9.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
27%
+10.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dungannon Swifts EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 31%
+11% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
2.18/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.85
+55% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dungannon Swifts
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Glenavon FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.11.2024 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 2-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
21.09.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
20.04.2024 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 2-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
09.03.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 4-0 HT 2-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
04.11.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts KİRL
09.09.2023 Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts 3-1 HT 1-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Dungannon Swifts vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Glenavon FC edged past Dungannon Swifts 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Glenavon FC made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dungannon Swifts had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dungannon Swifts and 1.17 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Dungannon Swifts vs Glenavon FC?

Dungannon Swifts 2-3 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dungannon Swifts vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dungannon Swifts win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Dungannon Swifts 37%, draw 25%, Glenavon FC 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/25/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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