Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Mechelen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 17 Jan 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise
1-0 HT 1-0
Mechelen
📅17/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2025/2026

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.37
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
13%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.67
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
19.0
X/1
22%
3.81
X/2
4%
15.6
X/X
6%
6.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
23.55
2/2
6%
13.8
2/X
7%
22.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 14% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
68%
+0.8pp
17%
Draw
20%
-2.3pp
13%
Away Win
12%
+1.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Mechelen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Mechelen EU Bookmakers 15%
-2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +30%
2.13/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.94
+0% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 70%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.6 Crosses 14.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mechelen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.49 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
352 Passes 363
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.11.2025 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
16.02.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-1 HT 0-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
02.11.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
17.12.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
19.08.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 4-0 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
19.03.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Mechelen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
1-0
AWAY Mechelen
1.23 xG 0.45
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
229 Passes 361
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise edged past Mechelen 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 41% of the ball to Mechelen's 59%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 1.23 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.33 for Mechelen.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen?

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 Mechelen in the Belgium - Pro League on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Mechelen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 69%, draw 17%, Mechelen 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ Over 2.5
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