AFC Fylde 2-4 Barnet — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.8
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.38
Over Pick
58%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.95
2-3
38%
1.92
4-5
25%
2.73
6+
13%
7.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
4.16
1/2
8%
22.05
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
8%
6.71
X/2
14%
5.1
X/X
10%
5.59
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
14%
2.84
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
32%
+11.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.3pp
35%
Away Win
43%
-7.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.5pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Fylde EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnet EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -25%
1.45/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.57
+12% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Fylde
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Barnet
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 10
7 Yellow Cards 1
03.10.2023 Barnet Barnet 2-1 HT 0-1 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İBSL
07.12.2019 Barnet Barnet 2-1 HT 1-0 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İBSL
01.10.2019 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 0-4 HT 0-1 Barnet Barnet İBSL
19.04.2019 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 1-0 HT 1-0 Barnet Barnet İBSL
22.09.2018 Barnet Barnet 1-1 HT 1-1 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Fylde
2-4
AWAY Barnet
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Fylde vs Barnet
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnet saw off AFC Fylde 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Fylde at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, AFC Fylde had 48% of the ball to Barnet's 52%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Barnet led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for AFC Fylde and 1.80 for Barnet.

What was the final score of AFC Fylde vs Barnet?

AFC Fylde 2-4 Barnet in the England - National League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Fylde vs Barnet?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Fylde win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AFC Fylde 43%, draw 21%, Barnet 35%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AFC Fylde) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Fylde) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İBSL More England - National League
17 Feb 2024
18:00 Ebbsfleet United vs Eastleigh Analysis →
18:00 Halifax Town vs Woking Analysis →
18:00 Maidenhead United vs Oldham Athletic Analysis →
18:00 Rochdale vs Solihull Moors Analysis →
18:00 Hartlepool United vs Boreham Wood Analysis →
18:00 York City vs Dagenham & Redbridge Analysis →