IFK Mariehamn 1-2 EIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.61
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 28% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
58%
-13.9pp
31%
Draw
23%
+8.0pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY EIF EU Bookmakers 22%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
+21% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
470 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-0D-1L
AWAY EIF
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
02.03.2018 EIF EIF 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİK
18.02.2017 EIF EIF 0-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİK
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs EIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

EIF edged past IFK Mariehamn 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was IFK Mariehamn at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 0.50 for EIF.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs EIF?

IFK Mariehamn 1-2 EIF in the Finland - League Cup on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs EIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Mariehamn win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 44%, draw 31%, EIF 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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