Ballymena United 0-1 Larne FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
55%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.09
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 27% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
11.85
1/2
11%
25.0
1/X
9%
20.55
X/1
10%
13.55
X/2
18%
3.33
X/X
10%
5.5
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
25%
1.77
2/X
6%
19.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
55%
Away Win
66%
-10.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.4pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Larne FC EU Bookmakers 70%
+16% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.50/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/0.67
+51% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +45%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
196 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ballymena United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Larne FC
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
3 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-0 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
15.08.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 3-0 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
31.03.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRK
17.03.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
21.02.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-3 HT 0-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
26.08.2022 Larne FC Larne FC 3-0 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ballymena United
0-1
AWAY Larne FC
42% Ball Possession 58%
3 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ballymena United vs Larne FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC squeezed past Ballymena United 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Larne FC as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Ballymena United had 42% of the ball to Larne FC's 58%, shots finished 3-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Larne FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ballymena United and 1.67 for Larne FC.

What was the final score of Ballymena United vs Larne FC?

Ballymena United 0-1 Larne FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ballymena United vs Larne FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Ballymena United 21%, draw 24%, Larne FC 55%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Larne FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Larne FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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