Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction — Model Probabilities
Chesterfield v Gillingham — Team-Based Signals
Chesterfield vs Gillingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Chesterfield 1-0 Gillingham — Actual Match Statistics
Chesterfield nicked a narrow win over Gillingham 1-0.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Chesterfield as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: both teams to score (55%) never looked like landing.
The match data tells the story: Chesterfield had 46% of the ball to Gillingham's 54%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 2.06 to 0.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chesterfield's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chesterfield and 1.83 for Gillingham.
Chesterfield vs Gillingham Result & Final Score
Chesterfield 1 - 0 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 17/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 45%, draw 27%, Gillingham 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesterfield) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.