Gillingham 1-0 Chesterfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
14.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.94
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
14%
5.78
X/2
10%
5.37
X/X
12%
4.49
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
30.0
2/2
18%
3.55
2/X
9%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +17%
1.11/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.89
-30% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
216 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 76%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
19.3 Crosses 21.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Chesterfield
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
14.02.2017 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
27.09.2016 Chesterfield Chesterfield 3-3 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
27.02.2016 Gillingham Gillingham 1-2 HT 0-2 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
10.10.2015 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-3 HT 1-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
17.03.2015 Chesterfield Chesterfield 3-0 HT 2-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
20.12.2014 Gillingham Gillingham 2-3 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-0
AWAY Chesterfield
0.76 xG 1.24
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
165 Passes 441
66% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Chesterfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Chesterfield 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Gillingham made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Gillingham had 33% of the ball to Chesterfield's 67%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.76 to 1.24 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chesterfield.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chesterfield led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gillingham and 2.17 for Chesterfield.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Chesterfield?

Gillingham 1-0 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Chesterfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 38%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
31 Aug 2024
14:30 Port Vale vs Doncaster Rovers Analysis →
17:00 Swindon Town vs Notts County Analysis →
17:00 Walsall vs Cheltenham Town Analysis →
17:00 Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers Analysis →
17:00 Morecambe vs Newport County Analysis →
17:00 AFC Wimbledon vs Fleetwood Town Analysis →