Swindon Town 1-2 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.71
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
3.66
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
16%
6.0
X/2
9%
5.57
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
23%
3.3
2/X
9%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.3pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.34/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/2.12
+28% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 69%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
17.6 Crosses 22.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Notts County
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.52 xG 1.66
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
289 Passes 508
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
03.10.2023 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
04.05.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
27.10.2018 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
30.12.2017 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
12.09.2017 Notts County Notts County 1-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
1-2
AWAY Notts County
0.93 xG 0.41
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
308 Passes 544
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
33 Box Touches 7
36 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County nicked a narrow win over Swindon Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Notts County made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Swindon Town had 40% of the ball to Notts County's 60%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.93 to 0.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Swindon Town.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Swindon Town and 1.17 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Notts County?

Swindon Town 1-2 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 34%, draw 26%, Notts County 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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