Morecambe 0-1 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 31 Aug 2024

Morecambe
0-1 HT 0-1
Newport County
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Morecambe vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.46
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.3
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
12%
5.24
X/2
17%
6.25
X/X
10%
4.53
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.24
2/X
9%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +13%
1.72/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.11
-11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
225 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 65%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
21.4 Crosses 17.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Morecambe vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Newport County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.75 xG 1.61
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
193 Passes 278
60% Pass Accuracy 68%
25 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.03.2024 Newport County Newport County 5-3 HT 2-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
28.11.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 1-2 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
06.11.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County FAK
31.05.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
13.03.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-3 HT 1-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
05.12.2020 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2

Morecambe 0-1 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
0-1
AWAY Newport County
1.51 xG 1.06
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 1
237 Passes 259
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 11
31 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County edged past Morecambe 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Newport County made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Morecambe had 51% of the ball to Newport County's 49%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.51 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Morecambe.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Morecambe and 2.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Newport County?

Morecambe 0-1 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Morecambe win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 38%, draw 25%, Newport County 37%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Morecambe)
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