Port Vale 2-3 Doncaster Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.34
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.4
X/1
14%
5.16
X/2
9%
6.29
X/X
13%
4.21
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
19%
4.42
2/X
5%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.8pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.31/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.33
-16% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -18%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
254 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 72%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
20.7 Crosses 15.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
29.07.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale HAZ
08.11.2016 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-0 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İNTK
26.01.2016 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-2 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
22.08.2015 Port Vale Port Vale 3-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
21.02.2015 Port Vale Port Vale 3-0 HT 2-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
16.08.2014 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-3 HT 0-3 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
2-3
AWAY Doncaster Rovers
2.55 xG 1.68
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
290 Passes 263
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Doncaster Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers nicked a narrow win over Port Vale 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Doncaster Rovers made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Port Vale had 53% of the ball to Doncaster Rovers's 47%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 2.55 to 1.68 — the balance of chances actually favoured Port Vale.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Vale had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Port Vale and 0.50 for Doncaster Rovers.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Doncaster Rovers?

Port Vale 2-3 Doncaster Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Doncaster Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 39%, draw 27%, Doncaster Rovers 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Port Vale), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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