Carlisle United 1-2 Tranmere Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 31 Aug 2024

Carlisle United
1-2 HT 1-2
Tranmere Rovers
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.22
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.65
6+ Goals
9%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 29% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.97
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
12.65
X/1
15%
4.79
X/2
10%
6.88
X/X
8%
4.39
2/1
11%
26.5
2/2
9%
4.96
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
44%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Tranmere Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Tranmere Rovers EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.27/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.46
-5% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
265 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 70%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.2 Crosses 20.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tranmere Rovers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.40 xG 1.22
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
204 Passes 315
60% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.04.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 2-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
05.11.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 1-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers FAK
29.10.2022 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 0-2 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
02.04.2022 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 2-2 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
16.10.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
23.02.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-3 HT 2-2 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2

Carlisle United 1-2 Tranmere Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
1-2
AWAY Tranmere Rovers
0.89 xG 0.38
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
302 Passes 134
77% Pass Accuracy 53%
27 Box Touches 14
33 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tranmere Rovers nicked a narrow win over Carlisle United 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Carlisle United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Carlisle United had 61% of the ball to Tranmere Rovers's 39%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 0.89 to 0.38 — on chances, Carlisle United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Carlisle United and 1.17 for Tranmere Rovers.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers?

Carlisle United 1-2 Tranmere Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 48%, draw 27%, Tranmere Rovers 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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