AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Fleetwood Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 29% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
11%
12.8
X/1
15%
4.61
X/2
12%
7.41
X/X
11%
4.55
2/1
12%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.39
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +17%
1.42/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/3.15
+19% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +69% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
290 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 68%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
18.0 Crosses 10.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 0.79
43% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
199 Passes 315
61% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.04.2022 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 1-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
27.11.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-2 HT 0-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
05.04.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
26.09.2020 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
08.02.2020 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-2 HT 1-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
10.08.2019 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 2-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-0
AWAY Fleetwood Town
1.69 xG 1.28
41% Ball Possession 59%
22 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 6
200 Passes 316
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Fleetwood Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon nicked a narrow win over Fleetwood Town 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AFC Wimbledon as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 41% of the ball to Fleetwood Town's 59%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 1.69 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fleetwood Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.33 for Fleetwood Town.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Fleetwood Town?

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Fleetwood Town in the England - 2nd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Fleetwood Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 41%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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