AGF Aarhus 1-0 Hvidovre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.65
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 27% vs market 22.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.61
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
21.85
X/1
18%
3.34
X/2
6%
17.0
X/X
11%
6.52
2/1
11%
24.45
2/2
11%
14.45
2/X
7%
22.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.8pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Hvidovre EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
1.79/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.24
-24% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +133% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
382 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 73%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
23.9 Crosses 22.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Hvidovre
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
06.08.2023 Hvidovre Hvidovre 0-2 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-0
AWAY Hvidovre
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Hvidovre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus nicked a narrow win over Hvidovre 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 45% of the ball to Hvidovre's 55%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Hvidovre?

AGF Aarhus 1-0 Hvidovre in the Denmark - Süperlig on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Hvidovre?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 52%, draw 25%, Hvidovre 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Over 2.5
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