FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 Randers FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
18%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.92
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.65
X/1
16%
3.84
X/2
5%
10.75
X/X
8%
5.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
7%
8.21
2/X
6%
16.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
59%
+1.5pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.0pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Randers FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+11% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +5%
2.27/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.75
+43% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
411 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
17.0 Crosses 17.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Randers FC
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.86 xG 1.14
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
487 Passes 319
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 0-5 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
22.05.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 3-1 HT 1-1 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
17.04.2023 Randers FC Randers FC 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
23.10.2022 Randers FC Randers FC 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
03.10.2022 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 3-1 HT 2-0 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
27.02.2022 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-0 HT 0-0 Randers FC Randers FC DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
1-1
AWAY Randers FC
2.09 xG 2.07
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 10
509 Passes 303
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
38 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Nordsjaelland and Randers FC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had FC Nordsjaelland at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 60% of the ball to Randers FC's 40%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.09 to 2.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Nordsjaelland had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 0.50 for Randers FC.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC?

FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 Randers FC in the Denmark - Süperlig on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 61%, draw 21%, Randers FC 18%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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