Venezia 3-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 17 Mar 2026

📅17/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.27
Draw
15%
5.28
Away
12%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.38
Over 2.5
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
29%
2.68
6+ Goals
9%
7.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
51%
1.42
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
5%
22.65
X/1
17%
3.72
X/2
4%
20.8
X/X
3%
8.45
2/1
5%
21.8
2/2
5%
18.1
2/X
7%
26.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
74%
Home Win
74%
-1.0pp
15%
Draw
16%
-1.3pp
12%
Away Win
10%
+2.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venezia EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 12%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
2.13/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.44
+28% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +11%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
16.7 Crosses 15.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venezia
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.35 xG 1.27
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
339 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.11.2025 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-2 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTB
27.01.2019 Venezia Venezia 2-1 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTB
01.09.2018 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 1-0 Venezia Venezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venezia
3-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
3.68 xG 0.59
65% Ball Possession 35%
30 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
548 Passes 227
88% Pass Accuracy 70%
37 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Venezia vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venezia beat Padova Calcio 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Venezia as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Venezia had 65% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 35%, shots finished 30-8, expected goals 3.68 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Venezia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Venezia and 0.67 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Venezia vs Padova Calcio?

Venezia 3-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie B on 17/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venezia vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venezia win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Venezia 74%, draw 15%, Padova Calcio 12%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venezia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Venezia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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